Predicted Costs and Performance Expectations: Questioning Assumptions of Linearity with Gmdh Neural Networks

نویسنده

  • Bruce D. Baker
چکیده

Determining the cost of education continues to one of the more elusive ongoing tasks in educational and economic research. Our efforts to tackle this objective are often plagued by difficulties in determining the extent to which educational spending rationally relates to educational costs in a system that is political by design, diminishing our capacity to use traditional economic methods for price setting. One truth that is beginning to emerge from the literature is that the cost of education is not constant. Education costs vary widely across institutions by region, by the organizational and structural characteristics of schooling and by the needs of individual students. A question being addressed more recently, is whether the cost of education varies by performance outcomes or expected performance outcomes of schools. That is, is there a cost-quality relationship that can rationally be used in price setting for public education? This study applies an alternate methodology, a flexible non-linear method known as Group Method of Data Handling to test the sensitivity of cost to changing performance expectations. In addition, this study tests the sensitivity of costs to changes in student population characteristics, holding performance expectations constant, challenging our current assumption, as manifested in policy designs, that costs of additional students with perceived special needs are linear and incremental. In general, the findings support that higher levels of minimum adequacy are required than currently exist for Texas school districts, and that this pattern generally ascribes to diminishing marginal costs. In addition, the findings do suggest that in some cases, and at some levels, changes in student population characteristics may result in comparatively explosive costs.

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تاریخ انتشار 1999